KCC: Cattle Market Watch
Ranchers gamble each year on their ability to raise a profitable herd. There are many factors outside our control that have profound impacts on an operation, including wildfires, drought and even regulatory or policy changes. However, the biggest indication of success or failure can be seen when examining the cattle market. And in case you haven’t heard, it’s up.
For the twelfth consecutive week, steer prices have established new records, climbing to $310.47 per cwt for feeder steers weighing 750-800 pounds, as of July 17. For those operations in the western region, many producers sold their cattle at the Western Video Market Sale in Reno, Nevada, this week. While sale results haven’t been comprehensively summarized yet, feeder cattle sold for between $301.00/cwt to $500.00/cwt depending on their size, quality and engagement in various management and breeding programs.
Beef exports are currently down 11% from 2024, in large part due to decreased trade with China. While the tariffs have played a role, this is predominantly due to the expiration of the Phase 1 trade deal struck with China in 2020, which had drastically increased exports over the last several years. In March, the General Administration of Customs of China saw the expiration of export registrations for a few United States beef establishments - the cause of this large drop in trade.
Despite this drop in exports, the United State’s cattle inventory is at an all-time low since 1951, with just 86.7 million head of cattle. This tight supply has been a contributing factor to the strong market in the face of other political and regulatory changes. The continued closure of the Mexican border due to the New World Screwworm outbreak, and increased geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have continued to support the United State’s strong agricultural market. Continued discussions and implementation of various tariffs do pose some risk, but markets have largely adjusted at this time.
We don’t hold a crystal ball, but forecasts indicate a continued reduction in cattle inventory, dropping another 5% in 2026. More producers are holding back cattle to replace and/or expand their herd, which has drastically reduced slaughter rates. Given the strong domestic demand for beef, just look at hamburger prices at your local grocery store, we expect to see high market prices for feeder cattle in 2026.
As you begin planning for 2026, programs like AngusVerified and Angus Link can be the difference between $350.00/cwt and $420.00/cwt at sale day. These programs acknowledge buyers’ preference for black angus cattle, and the importance of strong herd sires. At Kinger Cattle, we can help you on those fronts. Reach out on Facebook and Instagram to learn more about our program and our 2025 bull offerings.